Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
